Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on managing particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a automatic firearm opened up on a drone somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from US leadership follows the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
