A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
